2014 The useless midterms?

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2014-midterm-elections-voters-head-polls-article-1.1998400

As I write, folks are leaving their job early in the morning shift or arriving late because they went to vote or will. It is Early November an even year between Presidential elections and America is renewing all the Representatives and the third of the Senate seats that didn’t change last time with 36 states voting for governors. The most mentioned outcome in the media is that the GOP will take control of Congress. The reason for this being that midterm election usually focus on the President’s approval rate and Obama’s low in the perceptions. It may not be the case and here is why :

If mid-terms are about the Prez, they have other notable characteristics. For example, they register voter turnout way below the levels of Presidential races ( roughly 40% vs 60% ) and when that happens, the number of folks needed to swing results also go down. Lower turnout equals more uncertainties.

This year, two states ( Louisiana and Georgia ) possibly 3 may require a run-off. Just as in the number of ballots, races decided by a small margin rest on very few electors ( one more retirement home bused to the booths ) to make them go one way or the other. Add uncertainty.

These elections are however traditionally quite predictable and the party of the President usually loses seats, granted. But at the same time, if the traditional electorate ( grumpy old pale -men- ) favors the GOP, it is by now almost the only one that does. The younger, female, hispanic, moderate, you name it, all even moderates favored sometimes overwhelmingly Barack or the Democrats in 2012. Collectively, the numbers are still not in the Red for sure save in States of that color. What’s more, the GOP hasn’t been voting as a block since the arrival of a certain fringe subset which may explain in part why winning the midterms did not usher in Republican Presidents the last two times around. Stringing successes dates back to the GWB administration so that between 1990 and today the midterm magic only worked profitably twice. That should put a damper on the feeling that tradition will win the House or Congress.

The particular of these 2014 midterms goes to something else however ; the relationship between the GOP and the people. In part to assuage rebellion in the ranks, the GOP has adopted the tactic of demonizing Obama and it worked extremely well. It may backfire however. If voters were to base their choice solely on topics, economy, etc, the reality shows that they should be happy with their President. All indicators are up from 4 years ago or better even 6. But President Obama is now being judged on emotion more than logic and his wavering on issues national but more so international coupled with the sour aftertaste of the image ruining Obamacare implementation have made the Prez so unpopular that many in his party have refused help or apparitions on the campaign trail by the man. This however may have pushed some Democrat hopefuls to adopt a very Republican posture in trying to distance themselves from him, Wendy Davis for Texas governor comes to mind or Alison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky. And, if we all agree that Barack Obama is twice at a disadvantage by piling this image on top of the usual mid-terms sentiment, let us not forget that it is still not the President that is on the hot seat and that the image of the GOP is way below his own ( 42% positive White House to below 13% for Congress ). That shows that if the bad opinion on the health care plan is slowly creeping back to under 50%, that on the shenanigans over it or the budget is still fresh in the mind of voters too. Considering which, by loading all the blame on the president, the GOP made it about its own image in return, not the best move I’ve seen with its current popularity. If that was how the electors saw it, you can kiss your Red wave and congress control hopes good bye!

I don’t think it will happen exactly that way. The resentment generated at the administration’s performance may be enough to carry the day ( although that will still leave major structural adjustments to make for 2016 and beyond ). Uncertainty does not favor the Democrats only after all. The 3 races for bluish States ( New Hampshire, Iowa & Colorado ) can tip the scale for example. But that brings us to consider the real deep-rooted motivation for the electorate on midterms on its own : Change! For if you have the voters unhappy with the present set-up, they are voting for change, right? And what would change in case of a Republican take-over of Congress?

Nothing! The disastrous image of the Hill Republicans was built on opposition to the White House on every move and law. Gaining Congressional lordship would turn the tables around by having their law making efforts vetoed by Barack O or so is the plan. Which if it was to happen would finish depriving either side of the people’s trust. That in turn is of no concern to the Prez whom will not face the polls again. In 24 months, the Democratic Party candidate will not be running with his stigma either but the GOP in reverse, unless a miracle surfaces, will barely have gained by continuing on the track that dropped it so low in the polls. It better find a virginal savior to clinch the presidency.

That is why these midterm elections may be useless! First it was gridlock in Washington before, it will be gridlocked after. Second, by gaining control of Congress, the GOP may be set to losing next time when, let’s face it, it really counts!

As for the spread, I have explained enough why I believe it could be quite narrow. From this I don’t feel enabled to make a prediction so that I’ll simply offer a potentiality as value :

I would not find it surprising if, by tomorrow or after the last results in a couple weeks, the Democrats had retained a majority by say one seat?

Exercise your right! Tay.

Suggested reading and source :

If you can read that solid piece by GOP partner Public Opinion Strategies published by the Washington Post during your lunch hour, it may help motivate you to swing by the poll booth later today, whichever side you favor :

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/after-winning-on-tuesday-the-gop-needs-a-cold-showeryes-republicans-will-take-the-senate-but-heres-a-gop-reality-check/2014/10/31/cdd0535e-6041-11e4-9f3a-7e28799e0549_story.html

also :

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/chuck-todd-what-watch-election-day-n240371

http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/03/politics/7-things-will-happen-election-night/

and :

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/how_groups_voted/voted_12.html