North Korea has toned down the rhetoric. The disputed islands have left the news building. And China’s present unrest problems are internal. The Middle-East is still ablaze ( as usual ). So why a Post on possible Far-East military hiccups now, on the threshold between June and July 2013?
Well, two reasons : primo, the people who’s job it is to inform you usually wait until the guns are a-poppin’ to do so, which is wrong in my honest opinion and secundo, there are many small moves afoot that my readers might have missed and an analysis profits from being done with a calm head, still in my honest opinion.
Let’s start with the good news and move from there. The Korean peninsula is quiet at present and this piece : http://www.defencetalk.com/china-south-korea-agree-to-push-north-korea-denuclearization-48272/ lets us learn that China’s President Xi Jinping and South Korea’s President Park Geun-hye agreed to the need of denuclearizing the peninsula. That is the same as saying that North Korea should stop its nuclear weapons program since the South does not possess such an armament. And as we had seen in a past Post, China has historically maintained relations with all regimes of Korea and not just the Communist North as in the recent years.
But for practical purposes such a support is waning as it imposes too many efforts on the Celestial Empire who’s present is based on economic achievements to which peace is more conducive than conflict since they export so much. In the last months, China has agreed to U.N. sanctions, been quiet while Kim Jung-Un was not, cut the money flow from its banks and is now ready to discuss with both Koreas, Northern neighbors Japan and Russia and of course, South K’s American ally. Fingers crossed but excellent news nonetheless.
The impression that the dispute seems to have abated on the Senkaku-Diaoyu islands is not factual : http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0000341729
As reported above, the Chinese presence by way of military ships has not stopped at all. Yes, the international press has kept quiet on them but only because they like to play variety over substance and in the age of instant news gratification, their attention is a-changing faster than the times, in synch with that of a public that requires mo’n fresher on par with entertainment and sports. The main reason though is that in Japan, the controversy had internal effects in politics which monopolized the media in-house instead.
It is a sad fact that politicians all over the World will often manipulate Foreign ( or National ) Policy for electoral reasons as was the case recently when US President Barack Obama chose to announce arming the Syrian rebellion as his popularity dropped in the polls in big part due to a perceived laxity as regards American State affairs abroad even though his French ally had reported the chemical weapons’ red line crossed days before. And vice-versa of course!
And that leads us to analyze the region by comparing ongoing military moves with political ones in the major countries in it.
Japan : Japan is in a bind. Recent events on the military front include a proposed re-draft of the Constitution to allow the Japanese Self-Defence Force a bigger role.
Constrained until now by the terms imposed after the loss at the end of World War II, it would regain the “normal” prerogatives of a “normal” Army. This is actually rather positive as it would balance China and Russia somewhat. It does raise questions though. First as the changes as they were reported might make it a tool for the government in power to gain more control of its citizens as we reported :
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/02/us-japan-politics-constitution-idUSBRE94101D20130502
And second as the recent spats of disgraceful comments made by Japanese politicians indicate that the local right wingers may not be trusted all that much if their nostalgia for Imperium is founded.
The economy in Japan is under a nearly 20 years stagnation, a fact hidden by its still respectable clout overall and while Prime Minister Abe could use national pride to boost it, the step from that to excesses is a darn small one that can easily transcend into a leap with ugly consequences. Besides, the naval forces in Japan are excellent with destroyers being turned out at a rhythm even Uncle Sam now envies.
Will Shinzo Abe do the right thing … or go further Right than that remains to be seen.
China : The Space program is in full swing; the economy while possibly slowing is still performing satisfactorily enough to simultaneously allow the fattening of the middle class in the Middle Empire and if really the military was to be used, all eyes would turn to the various Chinese Seas, right? Besides which, controlling such a vast land, much more ethnically diverse than the usual monochrome “yellow” view of the majority of the Western public opinion thinks should be enough to keep the CCP busy, right? Well, not quite!
Yes, the Western province of Xinjiang is a concern.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-23112177
Yes , financial concerns are urgently addressed.
Yes, the … err … pacification of invaded Tibet has allowed a recent visit by the American Ambassador http://www.voanews.com/content/us-ambassador-ends-visit-to-tibet/1691601.html although without fireworks as these might have been mistaken with monks self-immolating?
And yet … after having relented a tad on the maritime front and removed its “lost” troops from India, Beijing still managed to venture into tiny Bhutan?
http://www.hngn.com/articles/6382/20130627/chinas-foray-bhutan-worries-india.htm
Well, something that many foreigners and especially Westerners amongst these seem to forget easily is that China has literally invented the Small Steps policy. As many small steps as needed over as many years/centuries as needed in fact! The idea may not be to conquer Bhutan all at once here, something easy to do if not to justify for the lack of payback. No, as with the recent Indian border transgression, China shows power in small increments, probably with the long-term vision than after many simulations, when the real move comes, people will have grown accustomed to the idea and accept it by way of a calmer and shorter transition into the accomplished fact point of view?
That interestingly conflicts ( yes, pun intended ) with the speed at which Xi Jinping is allowing the modernization of the Chinese society. As an example, consider the recent discovery ( through his own admittance/revelation of the fact ) that a convicted multi-recidivist murder had committed a crime unjustly charged to an innocent instead. An innocent that was put to death for it a mere 2 days after his appeal had been rejected. Of course, that sparked the interest of the Chinese public which is traditionally even more pro-death penalty than Texans are in the US of A? ( Last polls around 80% in favor ). And yet, the news is being covered heartily by the media and the subject discussed at large, something utterly impossible in China without the government’s laissez-aller if not approval? But, but, one cannot help to wonder if it represents simple modernization under a progressive leadership the likes of which most would have believed the CCP incapable of a few months back … or a cynical trade? And China joining the Nations that have repelled the said death penalty before America does would in effect silence those who have ( justified ) qualms with its human rights record? And since we know that at some point the spread of the manna is necessary and that as the GDP grows, the middle class will too, the big changes may only hide somewhat the small steps?
For instance, having secured its incoming energy resources by way of the Gwadar terminal in neighbouring Pakistan, the trusted ally, China is offering payback.
We are talking civilian nuclear power plants here but as explained in the article, the nuclear weapons arsenal is also growing and heck, China did integrate Pakistan into the development of their FC-1/JF-17 fighters ( now also offered to Argentina, too poor by far for Western jets since the huge economic crisis/debacle/set-back suffered a couple years ago ). The nuclear deal is a mirror image of that offered to India by the USA ( still on a civilian level while France is helping discretely on the mili front ) just as the JF-17 will also likely face the Indian Air Force’s Su-30MKI and Mirage 2000 K, the former being joined by the newer French jet Rafale the contract for which is under negotiation of its final clauses to offer Bharat ( India ) more punching power and numbers to face China itself should ( some would write when ) the need arises. Discreet but efficient tit for that by China then!
Pakistan : As long as we are there, let’s finish the visit! While often accused and even more often victimized, Pakistan also has much in the balance between military moves and political ones as we speak! Yes, we can find the duality of its role as regards Afghanistan unsettling. And yet as I have often pointed out, the politics here also balance out between the internal feuding of extremists that cost lives on daily basis and was the recurrent source of military coups that toppled the government. Help from the US got Pakistan modern F-16 jets just as it got it drone strikes as murderous as the terrorism it seems unable to evade! So no surprise then that while allied with the West it did not put all its eggs in one basket for the war to the West ( A-stan ) as that would have fueled the extremists and as it balances power to the East ( India ), likely aligned with the West-friendly new government in Kabul? India the arch-enemy that the West favors in reserve to balance China? Having just completed its first successful transition from one democratically elected government to another of a different persuasion, Pakistan is still in limbo nonetheless. For if the government is new, the man leading it is not?
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was in power before. He also has ties to the rebels / extremists. Of which one can say that they control him nearly as much as he controls them? Was he to pressure them to save Afghanistan from the Talibans that he would thus endanger Pakistan itself through a Pashtun rebellion? In turn making the country weak and a prey to India? No! So much so that he reserved his first attentions upon being elected to establishing ties with Indian PM Mahoman Singh?
And yet the fighting continues as Pakistani forces attacked Indian ones?
If you want to know how complex the situation is, then also check these stories below but do understand that PM Sharif more or less faces an opposite balance to that of the others mentioned since he needs peace outside his borders first to implement changes inside them on the politico-economical front?
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2013%5C06%5C30%5Cstory_30-6-2013_pg3_3
India : And will peace be found with India? Nothing is harder to predict since there are upcoming elections there? So that Mahoman Singh may have in the end to play the hardline at Pakistan in hopes of saving his own government busy trying to juggle society changes such as about the rape/women problems and slow modernization. The economy is not too derelict but heck they are no strangers to ethno-religious splits either? And in fact the thing that links India and Pakistan the most closely may not be the past or the feuding but the endemic corruption that they share? And that’s saaaaad!
Besides, was the calm to reign on the Paki-Kashmiri fronts to the West, India might still be worried to the East. For if China threathens, and simply discounting Bangladesh which likely won’t get much better any time soon, India’s allies are in worse states than itself!
Check that list of links :
Myanmar, Vietnam, Malaysia :
http://stratrisks.com/geostrat/13597
http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/international/malaysia-ends-operation-to-flush-out-philippine-gunmen/
All countries that recently made moves to unite against the Chinese hegemony and attempts at controlling the region but can on average not control their own lands?
All countries that should also concern themselves mostly with internal problems …
With such allies …
At least, that last link completes the contra-clockwise tour of Asia today with those filipino rebels.
for the Philippines are in the military news themselves?
http://www.lavozdigital.es/cadiz/v/20130520/cadiz/filipinas-interesa-principe-asturias-20130520.html
It seems they are interested in buying the Principe de Asturias small aircraft carrier that Spain decommissioned ( mostly for monetary reasons) as they are facing their own problems on the economic front?
Which provides comic relief to our very serious piece since the said vessel is made to carry Harriers, the old but efficient short take-off planes of British origin! That wouldn’t be so bad … if the Philippines had Harriers to put on it, which they don’t? And since it’s not at all clear that they could buy both the planes and the boat itself, it leaves the possibility of the US Marine Corps lending them some? Ideally with the pilots to fly them or at the very least a set of “instructors”?
Which will only be possible if their replacement is on time? And it is not? The successor was to be the F-35 Lighting II in B-variant the induction of which was planned for 2012. But the most costly of US military program suffered such delays that in November 2011, the US bought the whole remaining fleet of Harriers to serve as a spares reserve to last until the new jet arrived …
which it still has not?
Not only will I repeat my fingers crossed admonishment but I’ll even suggest that you borrow fingers from someone else ( as the Philippines ) and cross those too.
And even that might not be enough, Tay.
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