Yesterday, general elections were held in Turkey with a huge sword of Damocles hanging over the young republic’s future*. That danger comes from its past as the Ottoman Empire as well as the people in power for the last 13 + Years, the AKP ( Justice and Development Party ) of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who intended to rewrite the constitution to strengthen his hold on power if winning by large enough a margin ( 65% of seats ). The great news this morning is that this was averted. Let’s thank the Turks and check out how it happened.
There were 20 different parties to chose from for the Turkish voters yesterday which is a lot. These are of course not equal if compared and four stand out. Still on top is the AKP, conservative and “islamist”, followed by the CHP, social democrat and attached to the republic. Much further behind in percentages and seats are the MHP, nationalist and thus very Right wing and an entirely different “nationalist party”, the HDP representing the Kurds of the eastern regions. Turkey uses a proportional system with seats attributed on the basis of national percentages not candidate by candidate. It was those that stood to make or break this election.
If the AKP had garnered more than 65% of seats, the idea was for a rewriting of the constitution to take place, raising power for the President, hitherto supposed to be above the parties as a conciliatory figure which is both difficult in a land where political split is heavily polarized and political formations think little of demonizing their opponents at all costs. The fear was that Erdogan would then lead for many more years in that post. After all, since the turn of the century, the ex-mayor of the country’s largest city Istanbul, founded the AKP, became Prime Minister for 3 mandates and 12 years before ascending to the Presidency. Making the position primordial would in effect have “pulled a Putin”, i.e. insured the possibility of switching from one job to the other endlessly, always ruling at best and at worst, allowed him to bring more conservative changes until his barely hidden dream of re-establishing the Empire occurred.
The leftist CHP in second as was to be expected for if they have a broad popular support, it does not rival that of the AKP if only because of past governments led by it performing in haphazard manner. For to be honest, the AKP years, for difficult that they may have proved on the geo-political front with Turkey unable to truly rise to regional player as it regularly tried to change ways or chose the wrong allies ( think Muslim Brotherhood favored by Erdogan and foul play with ISIL ) also brought relative peace with the Kurdish autonomists and a thriving economy on its way to first world status. The markets this morning showed that to be true as they tethered due to the myriad of possibilities brought about by the repartition of the votes.
As for the smaller groups that are the MHP and HDP, the former is so staunch on national preference that it makes it hard for them to garner even 20% of the polls since they’d be likely to start a war if allowed while the latter represents a minority if a decent sized one of around 18%, making it just as hard to go over 20%. In any case, due to the proportional system mentioned above, reaching half of that is their main goal election after election as 10 % is the ( quite high ) threshold that ensures seats.
This time around, AKP got a tad below 50%, CHP a tad below 26%, MHP 16 and a half and HDP 13% respectively. What this means is that the AKP will easily rule by making a coalition with one of the remaining 16 parties or decide to try its hand at a minority government or precipitate early elections. The only real surprise in those numbers may well be confirmation of a national status for Selahattin Demitras, the new head of the HDP. By getting more votes than ever before for Kurdish representation, the young ( 42 ) star that almost got 10% in the last presidential election has positioned himself for the future. His success is not only good for the Kurds of Turkey but for the country as a whole since it keeps the specter of armed rebellion at bay and in this case, contributed to stopping the imperial projects of Erdogan.
About which … There is no disputing the aims of Tayyip and the AKP. First and foremost were the numerous occurrences of trying to control liberty of expression, press and social media. Then if one remembers the Gezi Park protests, those were about the government destroying a prized green and popular real estate sector ( Taksim/Pera ) of Istanbul to erect a copy of 19th Ottoman barracks. Similarly, one of the most controversial projects under Erdogan is the Presidential Palace rebuilt, that went from tranquil abode above the melee to neo-Stalinian clusterfuck** worthy of a Bokassa or Ceausescu. If anything, as soon as in use, it clearly revealed the intent of its new landlord when this image depicting the various guises of Turkic soldiers from China-Mongolia-Siberia ( 200 BC Chunwei’s Xiongnu) through their Huns and Göktürk era ( 300 to 900 CE ) up to Turkmens since 1000 to the end as the Ottomans from 1300 to 1922.
This dream of past glory has a particular flavor in our 21st century days for it is islamic in nature. And it leads us to wonder about the link between imperialism and Islam. The first 6 most populous nations of Islam are republics***. Granted that 2 are not entirely secular even 3 if counting the top spot Indonesia for the state religion is Islam but still, they are republics. This matters because the next 2 in the list would have been imperial in nature if Erdogan’s scheme had not been foiled by the Turkish voters thanks to whom, only 2 imperial muslim lands remain active. Now, astute readers would likely dispute that 7th place Iran is not imperial; I beg to differ. Let’s not hide behind the fact that since its assent to power, the Revolution of Khomeiny has mostly been blocked by sanctions derived lack of might. What resources it had were much needed to defend against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq more than America and the West. In fact, it is because they too believe in the hegemonic vision of Iran that many Muslims states not encumbered by democracy and also bent on exporting their competing variant ( Sunni to Shia ) such as the GCC members are so actively seeking ways to keep it feeble ( nuclear deal issue ) and prepare to block it more practical ways ( weapons buys and nuclear ambitions ). It is also due to these non-republics that another empire has risen of late sharing drams of past glory with Erdogan’s more mundane one : ISIL.
Yes, Ottoman revival temporarily set back, there remains 2 empires of Islam. After all, ISIL, which also likes to call itself the Caliphate, refers to a military state of that religion from its early history. A past at times glorious under many Caliphs that brought great returns on investment knowledge wise that can still be visited from Spain to Persia but that was a long time ago! And its not by virtue of splitting from Taliban styled Al-Qaeda to accept Boko Haram as a subsidiary that ISIL will convince any one that they intend to build schools to raise the next great Muslim minds as Avicenna, Averroes Ibn Rushd, Avenzoar Ibn Zuhr or Ibn Khaldun. Their descendants spring from the secular Turkey we almost lost as Fetullah Gulen or Orhan Pamuk ( 2006 Literature prize winner ), Bangladesh as Muhammad Yunus ( 2006 Nobel Peace Prize economist ), Pakistan as Aitzaz Ahsan, the Lahore lawyer. Of those secular Muslim jewels, only one stems from monarchy or empire, Shirin Ebadi ( 2003 Nobel Peace prize ) the human rights lawyer from an Iran that she had to leave in 2009 for being critical of the regime! And the nations that round out the top ten of Muslim populations, neighbours Algeria and Morocco, despite being one of each ( socialist republic and old-school monarchy ) are not expansionist nor imperial by any mean. As for Saudi Arabia, it comes in 16th place only. So that it is really not clear that empire is the way to go for Islam!
So that too, by avoiding a major faux-pas in the wrong direction for the future, Turkey circumvented the fight to a duel between ISIL and Iran for now, allowing the modern Islam and all those that welcome it as a friend to continue to develop in a peaceful way for the best of all.
May its citizens be thanked!
Tay.
* Established in 1923, the Turkish republic will turn 92 on October 29.
** As per our About Page : For clarity’s sake, a cat being a cat, it may occasionally have to be called a cat.
*** Indonesia, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Egypt and Nigeria.
Additional reading :
On the elections themselves :
http://www.todayszaman.com/anasayfa_live-coalition-minority-govt-or-early-election-turkey-debates-post-election-scenarios_383673.html
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2015/jun/08/turkey-election-results-what-you-need-to-know
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/08/world/europe/turkey-election-recep-tayyip-erdogan-kurds-hdp.html
http://www.wsj.com/articles/turkey-election-could-transform-state-1433602458
On Demitras :
On that Imperial Presidential Palace :
http://www.businessinsider.com/turkeys-new-presidential-palace-is-absurd-2014-11
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/12/abbas-erdogan-16-warriors-turkish-presidential-palace
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/erdogans-ak-saray-likened-to-alamut-castle-ceausescus-palace.aspx?pageID=238&nID=73936&NewsCatID=338
On Islam by numbers and scholars :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_by_country
http://www.neh.gov/humanities/2011/novemberdecember/feature/the-islamic-scholar-who-gave-us-modern-philosophy
Definitive Lapse of Reason 