Top 10 countries to watch 2015.

Every year brings its lot of surprises which is why the prediction game is unpopular in geo-strategic circles. Although you could find a bookie somewhere or an insurance company in London to place money on anything, the closer you get to the Olympus of why the world dances ( how being well known thanks to scientists ), the more of a Normandy answer : maybe, maybe not!
The above notwithstanding, I’ll take the plunge and offer a list of countries that could change things in 2015. Not solely for the immense fun of risking a winning record on something trivial and difficult but because it does have a purpose for my readers : a list of the sort is an analysis grid. If I face plant myself something awful but you were better armed to understand the World for a year, it will still have been worth it.

To decide which country has a potential for world wide importance in any given year, one should accept empathy and affects in my honest opinion. While this diminishes factuality, it increases process. That allows for an analogy, between a candidate on such a list and the rest, how ripe the fruit is outweighs the rest. Normally, all 5 members of the UN Security Council by the double virtue of their nuclear Armageddon poppers and that of their veto right should make the list at all times. Which would be true if detailing important countries but not in selecting those about to pop. This year, we will forego China and the United States, no less. The two biggest economies on Earth ( with China in front for the first time ) are at mid-low ebb. Not in the power ratings but in the sense that 2015 will be a waiting year for both. America has a big internal year ahead : The presidential campaign has begun in the GOP ( Jeb Bush has separated personal assets and opened a PAC type structure ); the nation under Obama has pulled out of conflict and to the sideline, a new Congress may yet yield results and a solid economic year would do wonders for the moral. China is in a comfortable place : Xi Jinping has invented smooth, soft, suave and sexy governance for the CCP, the slowing economy is treated as a sleeping dragon ( aromas and offerings, no suppositories ) and the very active widening of the Celestial Empire’s direct influence if not hegemony is almost flying low enough to evade radars. Of course the Washington could “have to” intervene here or there and Beijing might answer, even titillate, neighbors around islands disputes. But you can bet that if either’s secret yearning of the heart was revealed, next year would be just fine. And we will still find them central to most of the nominees’ destinies.

Baby Borgs.

In an obvious reference to the Star Trek Next Generation enemy, these are the countries that, while not having made the list, should be active at national level. Whether this expands to the outside world often depends on their neighbors some of which we name. So long shots yes, but not also-rans by any margin. To prove this, let’s begin with a third member of the UN SC quintet :
The United Kingdom. Elections are coming in May. PM David Cameron wants a fat win and a referendum on leaving Europe. If the polls we’re gloomy for his majority, he’d be tempted to bring the referendum date closer than the planned 2017 maybe next year, maybe this year to collect the support of independentist Nigel Farrage who’s option is rising and thus put Europe on the chopping blocks. The likelihood is much lesser than that of our number 9 though so no rank.
India. The impetus of the Modi government is likely to change India for the best granted. However geo-politics of such a big nation are a big pot to stew at length. Couple that to the resistance to change so pervasive in the Indian sub-continent and you get the idea : India should always be on the list bur never really pops except when at war. That is a concern to the East if not yet to the North so add its immediate neighbor.
Pakistan is always troubled and yet still functioning. It could blow at any time or last a few decades more. What decides which it is is often found in India as said or in the next offer.
Afghanistan. With the end of the ISAF activity and trickling of a US withdrawal, it will be the year of all dangers for Kabul. The only reason why they don\’t make the grade is that it is always dangerous over there, always was.
Add to these the failed governments of Africa too numerous to mention and the hellholes of Somalia and Yemen.
Then, to cover all angles, throw in the places presently at war Ukraine or Syria whose fate to be honest, is not in their hands anymore by now but are adjacent to some listed. Nod to Cuba whose year could well be nice due to a return to the collective but not of its own doing so thank Obama and let’s proceed.

The tie. 10th place is shared. by two countries that have little in common. The link stems from the likelihood of their emergence which is entirely internally motivated or almost.
North Korea registered a loss last year. When China’s support temporally dimmed, folks in Pyongyang were scared by the eclipse. Reunification is not quite on the agenda but an amelioration simply has to come for the DPRK. While more important than our alternative, the complexity of regional politics will slow any progress. Note to Washington : play it smooth!
Algeria is also a little isolated and in a rut. The mummy, as ageless President Bouteflika is affectionately called. may still be moving but plans are afoot for succession / renewal. Discreetly, the relationship with ex-colonial power France  is improving. which we’ll show later counts for 2015. A sort of link to Egypt and the Arab Gulf country should follow. The ups and down of oil and sanctions at Russia might favor petrol & gas exports. Algeria has slept long enough for its own good. Note to Paris : play it smooth.

Any which way. 9th goes to Greece. If you can, visit Greece … but unless rich enough to buy an island, don’t live there. If there’s one thing modern Greeks fear more than a hard day’s work or paying their taxes, it’s making “political” sense. After a scandal with the extreme right Dawn gang, the upcoming elections could bring the Left to power : with the promise of rescinding the austerity measures that came with Brussels help. In that case, either they renegotiate or they declare bankruptcy, in each case costing lots of cash to the EU. Most of the money lent to Greece is from public institutions so that the rest of Europe will have to pay. Spain and Italy might be tempted to follow suite. In all truth, Greece alone would be a cultural and historical loss of high symbolic value … but the real value … hence ninth!

Left or Right? 8th place is France, once again tentatively. After veering right for months socialist governance is getting its first timid results.A brightening of the economical horizon would feed it arguments to dispute the strict rules dear to Germany whose margins should fade in 2015. There are however few chances that it will bring in enough to pay for the Opex budget ( External Operations by Armed Forces ) unless in the East the conditions for a contract clear up on which I would not bet too much. Still, the positioning of the said French Army in the Sahara from Morocco to Sudan ( close to Egypt ) means that if number 5 lights up so will France, thus earning its place.

Abe. Japan is next in 7th because of its Prime Minister. The recent electoral win as well as last year’s changes to the Constitution ( allowing the military to build up ) give him the means to play hard ball. Since the neighbout he’s facing is China, results could be major. Hopefully, it will not be now, it will not be all-in moves, etc. Hopefully …
Still, for the changes he could bring in 2015, Shinzo Abe secures a spot for the Nippons.

Interchangeable. Iran gets 5th over Israel 6th but that is such hair thin a difference that you can switch them around or give each 5.5th place. I put Iran first on account of its growing elbow room to Jerusalem’s diminishing one. In 2015, new possibles opened to the old Persian nation. Gone is Mahmoud replaced by a more discreet but more efficient government. The talks on its nuclear program only fell second to the enemy jihadists in Syria and Iraq, In a nutshell, room to grow.
Inversely, Israel‘s fast eroding capital of sympathy will limit its goy calendar year = 6th. Any mistake could tip the balance. Sure, America’s veto will stay available but 2015 could be the year when things shifted as regards Palestine. The only thing that would fix things, a peace plan is honestly less likely than an agreement on Iran.

Will it blow? 4th, Libya‘s fit, epileptic crisis, death throes, whatever could worsen at any time and necessitate intervention, a real one this time. This is where many of the actors previouslly mentioned return. If Libya turns, the containment South by France will need  a pincer move. We already know ( reported in this blog ) that the UAE and Egypt are ready. possibly with wider GCC support. If that happened and Algeria decide to play the game, it could mark its re-emergence. Tunisia, for very geographical reasons can’t avoid the mess. Libya did not reach higher because it is neither central nor populated enough.

Islamic State. So 3rd place is for a non-country, granted but if it bugs you, just replace it with Syria-Iraq, none of the three being de facto States under present conditions. The reason for naming the Da’esh bozos is thus simple. As both States are failing, ISIL still exists. If it is still a concern with a semblance of territory by Christmas 2016, it will have earned its Bronze Medal, with of  course, both Syria and Iraq  getting honorary mentions too.

Vlad the Bad. Russia is in 2nd position. I can’t guarantee that Putin will get his awesome French naval multi-tools but even without them, his ambitions won’t be dimmed. Many still puzzle on the man and yet it is so simple. The power of the USSR, the seat of the tzar and the legend of Mother Russia are his motivations. Such high ideals happen to sell more than enough to a people chiseled in hardship for Vlad to be safer in his post than just about any other leader around, his ex-apparatchik training doing the rest. You noticed that Ukraine is not on our list : Kiev has no real power and will not device the outcome except by rushing things at worst. The Kremlin master may not be that bright but between the American President the Right calls a socialist and the ex_KGB officer, the real socialist has a head length. Because it won’t change in the next 11 months : Russia!

Pull & Tear. The country that gets our 2015 top spot on the watch list is Turkey 1st, on account of its ( democratically elected ) strongman Recep Tayyip Erdogan. By switching to president after holding the prime minister seat since the early 2000s, Erdogan copied Putin. He is now working hard to reduce the role of the Prime Minister. That’s the control part but at the same time, his party keeps bringing back the Ottoman Empire nostalgia ( a huge Presidential palace followed the Gezi Park Barracks ), hoping to wash out the Ataturk secular heritage. In a very polarized nation such as Turkey, years and years of consecutive power also allows one to place his people all over the system to secure the future. In his first full year as majestic ruler, Erdogan will now push his foreign policy agenda by aligning more closely with Moscow as seen with the South Stream pipeline accord.. Tayyip never hid that he intends to make Turkey a regional power, But the alliance with the Russian bear is a dangerous one & the Arab countries of the Gulf are very wary of the Turkish interference over the Middle-East; Erdogan’s options are now limited. Bad choices could have dire long term effects and many irons are in the fire. Make or break is Turkey’s 2015 motto. One safe prediction, expect more little phrases on women as the Islamic agenda resurfaces.

There you go! The results won’t be in for a while so no stress apart of course, for the few worries we outlined. There will be a review of this post by year’s end so see you in 359days, Tay.