Ukraine : a tale of two seas, many maps … and many lies … ( including a moving factory ).

The lies may be easier to map first. 😉

The EuroMaidan victors lied : the roadmap signed a day before Yanukovich fled Ukraine was never respected. Putin lied about the “mysterious masked armed men in Crimea”. The post-EuroMaidan government lied de facto by playing it by ear since it got into power : their alignment is more versatile than that of a top and their performance in governing and military action is abysmal *. And of course Putin’s government and media lie with the regularity of a metronomes.

All of the above are well documented and in more than a couple occasions, the Western media got caught scaring the public with untruths, something that folks not bothered with political correctness call lying too. But the oldest and most important lies came much earlier and are due to no lesser a professional source than Washington DC. When Ronald Reagan’s administration and Vice-president soon turned Commander in Chief George Bush the eldest insured Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO would not expand into Eastern Europe (1989-1991 ), it was true for a mere 8 to 9 years for in 1999, Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic joined under the watch of Bill “Jazz & Cigars” Clinton. 10 years ago, 7 more ex-Soviet bloc countries joined NATO including two that border present day Russia, Estonia and Latvia ( which form the Baltic states with Lithuania ). 2 more were added in 2009. [ Ukraine had actually asked to join in the last batch and was rejected for fear that a yes would anger Moscow. ] That is a whopping dozen of lies right there  and before you try to debate the right or wrong of it, think how it might look to a Russian.

That is a weakening of the Tzars’ land geo-strategic environment.In fact, Ukraine is the second biggest of the States that directly border Russia that were created after the dissolution of the USSR behind Kazakhstan and in front of Belarus. Clinton thus provoked needlessly, since NATO did not need those additions, the present crisis.

There was another lie by a US President in 1994 this time when the Memorandum on Security Assurances given to Ukraine after it let go of all its nukes was signed or last week when Ukrainian interim President Poroshenko went to Washington depending on how you look at it and was told that there would not be military help forthcoming from America. So that either Clinton or Obama are to blame. That last can also be chalked up to both Russia and the UK which also signed the document.

http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Ukraine._Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances

Of course, this does not justify Putin/Russia’s actions in the matter. The economic and political domination that Russia exacted on Ukraine through gas prices and deliveries often cannot be forgotten. But the motivation for nabbing Crimea that allowed me to predict the seizing also plays in this case. We are after all talking about Russia’s front doorstep, about the last bit of protective glacis. Since the situation was allowed to sour over the months, Vladimir Putin was offered by mid-July a perfect opportunity. The pro-Russian rebels were beginning to lose ground. The conditions of the civilians living in areas under their control  had reach a low. Help could be justified under the guise of humanitarian aid. Which he proceeded to use sending a convoy that came back loaded with a plant :
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/502532/Russian-aid-trucks-leave-Ukraine-with-military-equipment-Angela-Merkel-lands-Kiev
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28951437
What the Express thought was military equipment is how the plant that the BBC is looking for left. They squarely took the machines, the production tools.

In short, Putin uses troops because he can, secured by the veto right of Russia at the UN’s Security Council that means no effective condemnation or defense can be raise. As such, without a UN resolution, any country helping Ukraine with soldiers would be at war with Russia ( which entered first and is thus king of the hill ). And since Russia has nukes and Putin is flaky ( according to high German officials ), the risk is a bit too great. So in a final lie, Putin has a plan that we will finally need the maps to explain.

Click for link.

The map above is from Kiev and the one below from Russia.

Click for link.

Let’s warn the readers at this point that the Ukrainians change their maps to fit the daily stance and consecutive propaganda. So more precise but less trustworthy, sigh! As for the one from Moscow, it is prospective and less detailed. So including lots of areas not really under the rebels’ control but pushed for and especially worth for the arrows indicating troop movements. To correlate the 2 maps just find  DONETSK spelled in Cyrillic by the low and left of their centers

If you look way at the bottom of the Russian one now, you see a big arrow pointing left to Mariupol but also, way to the left another red arrow jutting due South from an ( unnatural ) extension of rebel territory. This flanking and encircling maneuver reaches at least to the frontier between the 2 oblasts ( administrative regions ) seen in green and yellow in the above K map. At least but maybe more for the moves they described are still being enacted and some can still come later if the conditions allow it.

To understand the ulterior motives of Vladimir, we need to pull back and use an old map from a decent analysis found here at Business Insider dating back to March 1st :

http://www.businessinsider.com/this-map-explains-why-russia-is-invading-crimea-2014-3

It serves as a perfect background for Russian intentions so that I modified it thus :

The series of black squares marks what Moscow would have liked to keep (possibly to go all the way to the river Dniepr, even on top towards Kiev ). The area in green is what Putin feels he can now salvage due to the instability without invading proper, by providing “help”. If the Kremlin wanted the whole of Ukraine, it could easily take it militarily wise; the difficulty is only political ( read sanctions etc ). And salvage does not necessarily mean conquer, mind you! In the last few days, Moscow came out with both warmongering declarations and with a vibrant call to find a compromise / negotiated solution. The latter would see a high level of autonomy awarded to the 2 oblasts to stop the crisis. Acquiring more territory to better your starting stance in the agreement to come is classic.

I choose that last map because of its honesty. The East of Ukraine is not all filled with pro or ethnic Russian populations; the percentages diminish away from the border. On the other hand, the patch of yellow found at left is essential especially since on this border ( in Moldavia ), one finds the strange region of Transnistria where there remains a group of ethnic Russians too. The temptation for Moscow to extend along the coast of the Black Sea to link them back to the supposed Motherland must be strong. ** Especially since this would make the amputated Ukraine landlocked and comfort Russia’s hold on the whole Northern shore of the said sea, access to the Mediterranean. So it is a matter of seas and conditions.

Pressured, threatened even, on a geo-strategic plane but safe behind his nukes, Putin decided as soon as possible to secure the key point, Crimea. Faced by the reaction of the West, he curtailed a possible invasion of the rest of Ukraine or at least to the Dniepr River and waited. His country’s back to the wall, Putin plots and attacks without complex alternatives to consider insuring that he stays a couple steps ahead of the International Community / West / opposition. Crimea was nabbed, he pulled back, the rebels appeared, he came back, the Ukrainian army suffered, he held back letting the death toll in civilians rise and when the rebels were on the verge of defeat, “vacationing” Russian infantry companies appeared along “humanitarian aid” convoys. With Washington, London, Paris, Berlin and NATO & Brussels only reacting to the blows with sanctions, Vlad is now expanding his basis for future control of the region we outlined. The present push is destined to link to Crimea only which means putting the coast of the Zaporizhya oblast and part of that of Kherson under either his power or that of his separatist friends. [ For make no mistake : if the territories in question gain semi-autonomy from Kiev, their re-attachment to Russia is but a matter of time. ] It aims to put the Azov Sea under control. From there, Putin will wait anew, possibly for a crisis ( made up or not ) allowing him to rescue Transnistria or Odessa ( de tempo both, you’ll see ). I almost feel secure to predict that one of the 2 + 2 BPC transport ships ordered from France and so talked about will be used for this “invasion”. And that would be the move to secure the Black Sea.

Let’s not kid ourselves, this is what Putin has planned. And no one is likely to intervene militarily. Sanctions are the extent of the cost along with condemnations and the sanctions are nearing their maximum quickly. Going further would begin to hurt the sanctioners themselves.

Knowing which, I offer this map of future Ukraine from a Dutch blogger :

Click for link.

Who knows how far off he will end up having been? Time will tell… sooner than later is my latest prediction.

I only fear that as was the case with Crimea, having been right in advance will serve strictly no purpose. OH! Well!

Tay.

* If you need confirmation of this on the military plane, either consider the complaint by an official stating that helmets and ballistic protections have yet to be received by the armed forces ( i.e. lacking ) or the old video below with families learning that a nearly 5 thousand strong force saw only 80 some survivors make it home.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VayoSyshgZA

** Odessa, the town and oblast that rules that yellow region of UKraine is called Odessa,  was founded by Catherine The Great, an immense Tzar , served as a resort to the Russian nobility and was the scene of the battleship Potemkin’s revolt of sailors that led to the Soviet Union! You have to admit that historically speaking, the place is likely to be Russian-O-phile and to be seen as home by Russians.