This week-end is marked by elections mishaps, some past and some to come. Democracy is a harsh mistress it seems. From Asia to Europe by way of Africa, positive results are rare and upcoming polls are fraught with obstacles. Let us review the panorama as of today May 24th 2014.
Thailand is under the control of its Army. Protesters took to the street earlier today against what looks more like a coup with each passing hour. But to be honest, protesters are the main reason why this military take-over happened in the first place. If we trace back the events of the last few months, a series of demonstration erupted in late 2013. These meant to protest the government of Yingluck Shinawatra deemed to be a puppet of her brother’s Thaksin’s rule ( 2001-2006 ). Thaksin Shinawatra is a complex figure. Having begun as a police officer, schooled in the US and gradually risen through the ranks, he resigned in 1987 to start business ventures, most of which were only modestly successful. But old contacts gave his Advance Info Services firm a quasi-monopoly with the military and insured his wealth. He entered politics in 1994 with the PDP. Many times Deputy Prime Minister under that banner, he started his own formation after the 1997 Constitution, the TRT, and won the cleanest poll in Thailand’s history in 2001. His policies were potent and reaped impressive gains in economy and social matters ( health care notably ) but dubious ones in education and the war on drugs. On average, the results were good enough to earn him a triumphant re-election in 2005. Still, having lowered state level corruption, he was accused of having personally benefited ( through his wife ) and that showed as his family sold the Shin communication mega-corporation for almost 2 B US $ free of capitals gains tax. That’s when the first anti-Thaksin protests began. he dissolved the parliament and called for impromptu elections marred by a boycott which led to by-elections in which both his TRT and the main opposition force PAD cheated heavily. A coup solved the problem on September 19th 2006!
When democracy returned in 2008, the winning PPP was soon charged with scandals, protests and lawsuits and its PM ousted as was his replacement. The period was marked by protests by the PAD party which is the one involved in the botched elections of February last. By staging protests, the PAD and the UDD ( the Red Shirts of recent fame) rendered effective governance of Thailand impossible until Yingluck ( Thaksin’s little sister ) won in July 2011 with her PTP, avowedly following her brother’s lead. The protest then made her office impossible to hold and led to the February poll. this was boycotted and protested too, the results invalidated and that is why the Military have now taken over as Yingluck Shinawatra was herself impeached 2 and a half weeks ago.
This shows how far Thailand is from proper democracy. Protesting the government is a national sport no matter who is in office. Demonstrations are almost always ongoing even during and at the elections that they were meant to bring about. I am not a fan of military rule by any margin but in this case, one has to wonder if it was not the best solution as long as temporary. Except that by now it has turned into a full-fledged coup : dissolution of the House, arrest of parliament members, martial law and suspension of the Constitution. Was that what the protesters were really “gunning” for?
Meanwhile in Africa, South african President Jacob Zuma was worn in today following his ANC party victory on May 7th, the same day that Yingluck Shinawatra was removed for abuse of power. No matter what one may think of Zuma, he is at least legitimate? The same cannot be said of Malawi’s President Joyce Banda who tried to annul the elections held on Tuesday, judging them rigged having come in second to Peter Mutharika. Except that while the poll was utterly chaotic indeed ( some places received neither boxes nor bulletins ), the High court rejected this call as the power of annulation does not rest with the presidency ( even though Banda announced she would not be a candidate in the re-run ). Maybe trying to hold for the first time all elections ( local, parliament and president ) at once was just too much?
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-27556155
It still better than Somalia where the Shabaab militias attacked the parliament today with a body count past 10 people. Despite its presence having been reduced in the past years, the Al-Qaeda off-shoot still makes proper governance impossible as shown by the fact that Somalia is one of the 6 nations where economic indicators don’t exist or are not reliable.*
And then there is Europe. At large, Europe is engaged in a poll as we speak until tomorrow evening. The vote will elect European parliament members that seat in Strasbourg and Bruxelles. Of all of today’s cases, this is the one where violence is unlikely and due process almost certain but … but is that to say that the results will mean much? The answer is not necessarily. In most countries, the anti-Europe parties ( mainly far-Right ones that shun anything above national level for xenophobic reasons ) have gained recently. Nigel Farage’s UK Independence Party already holds more European seats in proportion ( 9/73 ) than it does at any national level. Marine Le Pen’s Front National in France just garnered its best ever results in municipal elections with 12 towns and is hoping to confirm that success tomorrow by hiking its presence to the UKIP level. In the Netherlands, Geerts Wilders’ Voor de Vrijheid has decent ( 10 % ) standing and certainly hopes to get up to that mark in Bruxelles. And so on. But why, what does that mean? It always reminds me of Canada where the Québec separatist party Bloc Québécois once held a full sixth of the national representation ( circa 1993 ). This has abated since but one has to wonder why vie for a seat in a body that you wish to get rid of. I’d understand a White American to be part of the NAACP if sincerely equalitarian but not a White supremacist! NAACP and KKK memberships are pretty much exclusive, aren’t they? As regard the pan-European elections that will conclude on Sunday, I can’t help but want for a rationalized result, as in ratio! Pray give us a percentage of votes for anti-European ( Eurosceptic in politically correct speech ) parties over the real expressed votes including abstentions. If 60% of Europeans vote and the antis gather a tenth of the seats, that represents nearly a quarter of those that care that resent the institution now, doesn’t it? I may be too strict but to paraphrase Groucho Marx, I wouldn’t want to be a member of a club that I wouldn’t want to exist int he first place. What’s more, if the European Parliament is representative of those that don’t want Europe to work, maybe it partially explains why those that do find it inefficient?
http://www.ceps.be/system/files/article/2014/02/Forum.pdf
http://openeuropeblog.blogspot.ca/2013/09/almost-third-of-austrians-projected-to.html
And then, singularly, Europe, on its Eastern fringe will see a non-nation hold an impossible vote tomorrow. I am talking about Ukraine of course. The militias that hold towns in the East under their guns have compounded their useless referendum from the 11th by physically invading the offices of those in charge of the consultation and removing the voting lists and all other useful items.
Of course the citizens that might have wanted to voice a different opinion are scared and on account of that, tomorrow’s poll will de facto not be a pan-national one. This poses a problem for the central government in Kiev since it means that the legal recognition of its power that was lacking since the events of Euromaidan that led to the departure of Viktor Yanukovych won’t be forthcoming. The vote won’t be valid all over Ukraine and thus confirm that the nation is broken. This also explains why Vladimir Putin is all sugar and ready to acknowledge the results.
Of course he can assert as much since by any reasonable standard and short of draping itself in ridicule, the International Community will not be able to validate that election fully. Vlad can show all the goodwill he wants since it won’t cost him a dime ( nor a ruble ) in the end. His masterful chess moves have yielded a perfect defensive position : on Monday, Ukraine will be as divided and ungovernable as it is today! Having refrained from inputting visible troops, Moscow can’t be blamed. but at the same time, the future of Ukraine lies in fixing itself which if it can be done will be lengthy and dirty, leaving the nation exsanguine, the recovery from which if at all possible will require bedside care for a long while. And no matter how willing, the West is not that close to Kyiv. The best local doctor is Russian?
I said so in the past :
http://definitivelapseofreason.com/2014/04/30/usa-russia-and-syria-the-pixie-dust-settles-on-ukraine/
Time to move as often has passed, passed away even! This election is pure spectacle but hey, as we all know and found out once again in this post regarding democracy : the show must go on!
Sad out, Tay.
* The others being Western Sahara, Cuba, Venezuela, Iran and North Korea.
Definitive Lapse of Reason 