On Sunday, a referendum was held in the Donetsk region. The world is now fully preoccupied about the results and yet there is no reason to do so. In fact there are simple reason to disregard the whole thing.
Process – When a similar referendum was held in the Crimean peninsula earlier this year, I explained to my readers why it was not valid. The main reason was the presence of unidentified armed men so that the vote was held under duress. But I also explained that if it was followed by a functional governance and endured long enough, it would end up validated by international recognition over time.
There are however huge differences in the most recent case. First and foremost, there is no legal authority in the Donetsk region – which is why I am not using the proper terminology of Oblast that describes Ukrainian administrative districts. The people organizing the referendum are not in power anywhere in any form. A simple way to show this is the absence of definite numbers on who voted? The Donetsk Oblast is credited with 4.350 million people whereas the best estimate from the sympathetic source Voice of Russia gives the numbers of ballots printed at around 3.1 M. http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_05_11/Over-470-journalists-covering-Donetsk-referendum-3819/
http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_05_11/Donetsk-region-referendum-turnout-nears-70-3585/
This corresponds to the following map of the region :
Only the red areas are under control by the separatist although not always by the same groups. So that unelected self-appointed rulers held a vote over uncertain circumscriptions on plain paper without a pre-established electors list? Adding open ballot boxes, easily faked ballots and doubtful registry, when I doubt the numbers, it is thus not the percentage expressed in the results but more essentially the validity of the electorate itself. We have seen students bodies and African dictatorships hold more respectful elections in the past. On process, passing grade is not obtained.
Intent – The same sympathetic link from VoR above also gives this as the question on which voters had to express their will : “Do you support the State Independence Act of the Donetsk People’s Republic?”
Again, one has to wonder how valid this is. The Donetsk People’s Republic was non-existant on a legal standpoint prior to the vote. The State Independence Act or Act of State Self-rule depending on the source is nowhere to be found. The follow up that saw the separatists both ask Moscow for incorporation to the Russian Federation and promising a second referendum for May 28 on the matter are almost contradictory.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/05/12/uk-ukraine-crisis-idUKKBN0DR04H20140512
Unknown people have thus voted on an undisclosed agenda. What does it mean?
Territorial integrity – As we saw above, geographically, the Donetsk People’s Republic does not exist. It has no borders. The above map showed that it cannot claim a permanence over a defined land. When autonomous regions such as Québec in Canada in the past, Scotland in the UK in the near future or Corsica in France eventually held or will hold referendums, their physical definition is clear, localized, accepted, etc. Such was in fact the case for the Autonomous Republic of Crimea in a correlated recent occurrence. This is essential because it means that the results of this referendum cannot be verified to endure over time since they do not apply to a delineated portion of land ( I.E. not a country to begin or end with ). No one will be able to verify whether the Donetsk People’s Republic endures or not and thus possibly earns its recognition through factual existence over time because there is no starting point for an assumption to be hence proved!
For all of the above reasons ( that are also valid for the Lugansk region and city Slaviansk ), nothing of importance happened yesterday in Eastern Ukraine. The best confirmation of which is found in Vladimir Putin’s lack of support for this referendum as he recently asked those regions to wait to vote on May 25th in the Ukrainian Presidential elections instead. Give the man some respect. Yes, I did call him a clown myself a few weeks back but it was figure of speech at his excesses. Putin is a strongman and not much of a democrat, maybe even a joker but certainly not an idiot as his masterful moves on the Crimean chessboard showed. Of course, he’d like control of Ukraine back but not a parody of it. Up to a point, it may be worth to see the military side of things : No general would welcome being tasked with seizing a mystical land. If it does not appear on a map staff, it cannot be conquered?
There are more realistic implications and options, industrial and socio-economic ones. Yesterday’s referendum concerns an objective that is geographically, socially and ideologically undefined. Or in the Bard’s immortal words : Much ado about nothing.
Ukraine’s fate will have to wait. And if the conditions do not change, a lot of the comments we just offered will apply on May 25th too? Kiev has precious little time to avoid the same pitfalls and Vlad is surely counting on it.
Wait and see, Tay.
Additional sources :
Definitive Lapse of Reason 