Two very different stories are at the center of the world’s attention today and both involve people or media speaking out of their hat.
In Ukraine, the central government in Kiev relaunched its attempt at disarming the separatist in the East that seized cities and clamor to want to join Russia. You can follow it from Kiev’s point of view here :
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/5-dead-one-wounded-as-anti-terror-operation-continues-in-sloviansk-live-updates-344902.html
The situation is quite complex with the Ukrainian military moving rather slowly to avoid excessive bloodshed which Moscow dreams of to use as an excuse to intervene. For proof, from the above link is this tweet by the editor of Russia Today Margarita Simonyan :
That reads Ukraine ( in Cyrillic ) Rest In Peace!
This raises the point of media coverage of this crisis. For instance, a dispute arose over the photographic evidence to the presence of Russian troops in Eastern Ukraine.
http://www.euractiv.com/sections/global-europe/ukraine-submits-proof-russian-covert-action-301601
http://iwpr.net/report-news/ukrainian-intelligence-names-gru-officer-slavyansk
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27104904
The above reports show what is considered proof but Russia Today and other media have a different take on the matter :
http://rt.com/news/154548-pictures-russian-troops-false/
Let us be blunt : whether or not this particular set of photos are true there are Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine. For the opposite to be valid would necessitate that you consider Moscow to be singularly inefficient at playing its cards. Special forces of one kind or another are always used in such cases. The same would be true if the roles were reversed. Even the above article does not deny that. When Slovyansk’s “mayor” says that they “have volunteers who came to us from Moldova, from Russia… ” he cannot certify their day job is not that of soldier even though he also swears that : “ Not one serviceman of the Russian Federation is on the territory of Slovyansk “.
Similarly, when Russia says that it is forced to order an important military exercise near the Ukrainian border, it makes no sense. The argument that NATO forces in Poland and the Baltic States are the reason is just as ludicrous since all of these are NATO members and no permission is to be asked of Moscow. Dismissing this rhetoric as a delusion by Moscow would be an error though. One simply has to understand that Putin is playing for two very different publics and what seems ridiculous to the average Westerner is comforting to the average Russian citizen. Vladimir is not crazy; he’s crafty!
Other such surrealistic “news items” that surfaced on the Internet over the last days included a Russian airplane disabling electronically a US ship in the Black Sea even though the incident involved a standard fighter bomber aircraft ( complete with demoralized US Navy sailors resigning and whole sections of the Ukrainian army being defeated by a handful of separatists in the East. The later is particularly non-sensical since logic dictates that : IF the Ukrainian forces can’t overtake the small groups of armed men that took control of police precincts and town halls, THEN there is absolutely no reason for the troops build-up at the border, now is there? Just let your Russia-philic buddies achieve their take-over before accepting their request to join the Russian Federation which the International Community would then have to recognize de facto as happened with Crimea? So pure propaganda!
This posturing however may have already painted Vlad in a corner. He notoriously hates to have his hand forced and push comes to shove will choose the option that favors his reputation and view of a dominant Russia. That would mean that the troops movements will turn to bona fide invasion, tomorrow morning, during the week-end or in a few more days. Moscow would of course grab Eastern Ukraine by force, it has the manpower to do so. Whether it could do so without a prolonged civil war type of conflict ensuing is another thing. Winning a full-fledged war for it with the West is not an option though. The piece linked to below gives a fair assessment of that :
https://www.iiss.org/en/militarybalanceblog/blogsections/2014-3bea/april-7347/russia-and-ukraine-3b92
All of which does not make the situation less tense on the ground. Yes, most of the noise around it from either sides is just noise but things are evolving quickly nonetheless and if you are worried or interested, checking back on it very 12 or 6 hours is mandatory. To be continued.
The other big war of words going on at the moment is the one between Israel and Palestine. You likely heard or read that the 2 main Palestinian movements and often enemies that are the Fatah, led by Mahmoud Abbas and presently in power of the Palestinian Authority and the Hamas. The immediate answer of Israel’s government was a strong rebuttal by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatening to halt the Peace Talks process over the matter.
http://www.euronews.com/2014/04/24/israel-says-new-palestinian-unity-pact-threatens-mideast-peace-process/
http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-israel-palestinians-peace-talks-20140424,0,4928952.story#axzz2zqhDQm46
You may wonder why? There are 2 very different things at play here. The first clearly favors Jerusalem’s position : Hamas is recognized by many countries as a terrorist organization ( linked to the Muslim Brothers ). Not because it has an Islamic fundamentalist credo but because of past positions by its members targeting Jews as a world problem, denying the Holocaust or suggesting that it may not be over and so on that contradict its charter’s article 31 that finds peaceful coexistence between the religions possible. Fatah has acknowledged the existence of Israel for instance but Hamas has the Hezbollah as a model and these “nice fellows” like their Iranian overlords are vowed to the destruction of Israel. Quite contradictory, wouldn’t you say? Of course, strictly on the Palestinian side of things, the reconciliation was a necessity. Say, because the Hamas is the ruling party in the Gaza Strip? Or because it has after all hinted at accepting a two states possible outcome since Jerusalem did as much with the 1967 borders option. So that one can understand Netanyahu’s anger until all the Is get dotted.
Except that there is a second problem raised by the intransigence of his answer. In order for Palestine to live in peace with Israel, all of its inhabitants / citizens have to agree or the violence will continue. And to stop that from happening is to insure that things don’t get fixed in the end! This may only be the problem’s symptom however. For that position and those loud words again point out to the idea according to which Israel actually does not want the peace talks to succeed or for that to happen as far down the road as possible. In which case there will be settlers all over Cisjordania and Palestine even if it comes back to existence will be dwarfed either demographically if the right to return of the Palestinians is negated or economically in the contrary.
Again the use of strong words and inflexible posture, as in the Russian situation, might in the end force the choice. Which has me coming to the strange conclusion that it is almost to be hoped that all this is voluntary to begin with. Seizing whole countries or erasing them for geo-political reasons is an abomination of course showing that our world may forever be ruled by knaves. But that the same results would come from having one’s back to the wall solely by virtue of talking out of one’s hat would show it to be forever ruled by idiots. As little comfort as it may bring, I’d favor the former over the latter. Paint me disillusioned?
Tay.
Definitive Lapse of Reason 