Is Russia ready to invade Ukraine? Putin sure is!

The excerpts in underlined italic below are found in this full-text link :
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26399642
The Russian Upper House of parliament authorized the use of troops by President Vladimir Putin to help “normalize the socio-political situation in Ukraine”.
There is of course no valid reason for this.
The military base of Sevastopol certainly cannot serve as an excuse : “the personnel of the military contingent of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation deployed on the territory of the Ukraine – the Autonomous Republic of the Crimea”. A major naval base filled with soldiers can defend itself, especially since no attack on it is taking place.
The “threat to the lives of citizens of the Russian Federation” is an even weaker excuse. For the last 25 years, when crisis of the sort occurred in the World, troops we’re sent in to evacuate foreigners, yes, but that did not require the amount of soldiers that were put in action through an”exercise” as of last Wednesday.
http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-ukraine-russia-military-readiness-20140226,0,6553481.story#axzz2uTeawQSp

There are no excuses for what is unfolding in Ukraine but there is an obvious precedent and there were warnings. The precedent is what Adolf Hitler did in Austria prior to World War II : it is known as the Anschluss and you were warned about it here : “And if one remembers the Anschluss of the Third Reich, this would not even be a precedent? The use of ethnicity to warrant annexation of a nearby land happened often enough in History.” *1

In short, Germany ( under an older form known as Prussia ) and Austria of common Germanic descent had fought each other and each had its own views over imperialistic matters. As the Austria-Hungary empire had integrated many slavic lands, its Germans were a minority in some regions. After WWI, however it had been brought back to just about present day Austrian borders. In the Northern provinces, most favored their German heritage. Adolf Hitler ( himself an Austrian-German ) once his Nazi party got into power, made all possible efforts to promote reunification. Using the cover of post depression climate, he is known to have encouraged dissent, fomented trouble and even caused attacks on Germans in order to have an excuse to come to their help and “free them” which he did in 1938 by annexing Austria! Well, as we just saw, Putin is ready to invade Ukraine to save ( annex? ) Russians in a neighboring country of similar Slavic descent *2?

The whole affair was in fact filled with lights blinking in alert all over the geo-political control board, from the onset but most spectacularly since February 18th. Euronews gave a correct recapitulation of the events leading up to the present invasion in the link below :
http://www.euronews.com/2014/03/01/russian-upper-house-approves-use-of-troops-on-ukrainian-soil-/

What is surprising to me is that the experts failed to see this as things built up. Considering the linear progression, one wonders why. Why this blogger correctly managed to decipher what was happening for instance? To which the answer is probably as simple as perspective. We just referred to the Anschluss above. That is the name given to the period of tensions that led to Hitler’s take over of Austria in 1938. That is how far back one had to look to envision what was going to happen. But at minima though, at the very least, you had to remember that Viktor Yanukovich was Prime Minister of the land ( 2002-2004 ) under the original President and then disputed winner of the Ukrainian presidential elections. That people took to the streets on the very same Maidan plaza in what was known as the Orange Revolution and peacefully obtaining a new vote to correct for fraud and cheating. That Yanukovich lost that! That in turn would lead one to remember the strange case of his winning rival’s ( Yuschenko ) poisoning under whom he served as Prime Minister in between presences in that position by Yulia Timoshenko who herself was to become Yanukovich’s Prime Minister after he was at last elected President in 2010? If one remembered that Orange Revolution episode, then, when he comes back with promises to keep working at European integration, when he imprisons Yulia -2011, when he changes the language law -2012 and when he comes back on his EU promise and turns to Russia -2013, you know that he was playing all along just as you know that eventually the people will be back on Maidan place?Which they did in november and grew to impressive proportions by January after laws were signed to harshly criminalize protesting.
But 2014 was not a copy of 2004, mind you! By the end of January, as a truce was declared, any observer, unless very naive, could expect that the situation would endure. A- The protests were not as peaceful as the Orange Revolution, that was clear already. B- Yanukovich was not sincere, idem. And C- The protesters did not leave. Fast forward to February and new offers but no solution. On the 18th, find the protesters clamoring for a new Constitution. Also find renewed police exactions? Neither side kept its word! “Peaceful protesters” kill cops and government snipers kill unarmed civilian for a couple days and a new agreement is forced upon the parties by foreigners on the 21st. Read back and tell me : What was going to happen?
The agreement would not stand, neither side would abide by it right? And neither did.
This is when I began a series of somber calls, of dire predictions. I reminded my readers that the Olympics held in Sochi from the 7th to the 28th prevented Putin from reacting; that having sunk over 50B$ in those to revive the image of his country, he’d let them end before moving but …
But that after the Games, the necessities of geo-politics would have to be addressed. That another timeline had begun in 1989 as the Berlin Wall fell and the Soviet Union began to crumple,the Soviet Union mind you? That what remains of that union now that Russia has replaced it includes Ukraine ( CSTO member ) and that the Kremlin just could not accept that loss without being relegated to second rank power and that power is what Vladimir Putin is all about so that …
So that when neither party respected the agreement, the opposition firing and replacing the President, himself fleeing, the call again had to be made not to move to fast. I had to warn all to wait until Monday ( 24th ) minimum as the language law was repealed ( or the next day as a warrant for Yanukovich was issued ). I had to point out that enacting too many changes too fast would bring about antagonisms within Ukraine that would favor Russia’s hegemonistic views and provide it with excuses which is now happening.
The important thing is not how right I was however but rather how wrong they were. They in this case being two distinct classes of people : politicians and journalists. The latter are as always preoccupied by following events but think about it my dear readers : if those that inform you merely follow events, you will always be behind the facts? What good is an almost instantaneous means of spreading information if we infer nothing from it? Without perspective, it is but a way of keeping you stuck in the instant? Momentum. the energy that carries through to the future can’t be defined without knowing the forces initially applied, in the case of historical events : the past?
As for politicians, they play the hands they’re dealt. Russia can disregard international right in Ukraine today because it has a veto right in the only body allowed to tell it to stop in our collective name. Oh, sure! The leaders of this World could have been more proactive. They could for instance have warned Russia more aggressively than by simply drawing fictitious red lines as the main one of them did. That would have led to possible war though. Was Ukraine, close to Russia, corrupted and broke a good enough reason for war? Was it worth it? The answer is flying around Ukraine, has been since yesterday :

As with the soldiers found near the airport, the most worrisome part is the absence of markings on the vehicles. That constitutes a clear violation of all international rules on military affairs. Unidentified, a soldier is in fact a mere terrorist. At the same time of course, unidentified, a soldier by his mere presence does not allow for a nation to be faulted for sending him? The very fact that Russia would chose to act in such a way is proof of its intentions.
Now, we are indeed forced to watch events unfold. Here, Russia argues innocence until proven guilty : http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/01/ukraine-crisis-kremlin-idUSL6N0LY0I920140301?feedType=RSS&feedName=marketsNews
There, people act urgently one Monday too late : http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/01/eu-ukraine-idUSL6N0LY0II20140301?feedType=RSS&feedName=marketsNews
Meanwhile in Ukraine, some Eastern towns are seeing clashes of the reverse kind of those seen in Kiev with opposition to the ex-opposition?
http://www.euronews.com/2014/03/01/ukraine-violent-clashes-in-kharkiv-leave-dozens-injured/
Which, as there are more people of Russian descent there than in the Central or Western part of the country may be enough for Moscow’s claim of “threat to the lives of citizens of the Russian Federation” to be validated and Anschluss 2.0 to take place?

And in a few months or a couple years, some historian will join pens with some journalist to publish a book explaining in detail what I tried to foretell. We will learn all about who were those mysterious men that seized Crimea airports 2 days ago. If they were local pro-Russian sympathizers it will exonerate somewhat Putin for possibly invading and the poor Western leaders for having been helpless. If they are discovered to have been Russian forces, it will throw a heavy blanket of opprobrium on Vladimir which his successful bid to be seen as the macho guy that preserved slavic grandeur will allow him to shrug off.
With each passing hour however, the identity of this story’s loser becomes clearer and clearer :
goodbye Ukraine!
Tay.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anschluss

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http://definitivelapseofreason.com/2014/02/26/boot-noises-news-updates-from-india-to-ukraine/
*1 http://definitivelapseofreason.com/2014/02/24/open-letter-to-ukraine-from-sochi/
http://definitivelapseofreason.com/2014/02/22/fingers-crossed-on-ukraine/
http://definitivelapseofreason.com/2014/02/21/agreement-signed-in-kiev-is-ukraine-saved/
*2 http://definitivelapseofreason.com/2014/02/20/ukraine-events-in-3-names-and-3-timeframes-from-pre-history-to-next-monday/
http://definitivelapseofreason.com/2014/02/19/kiev-ukraine-video-and-tv-source-update/