Ukraine is older than Russia. For those who follow the news and international politics, this is a great starting point. Having begun over 30 thousand years B.C., it was part of the beginnings of civilization under Scythia, Greece, Rome and the Byzantine Empire. By the late 9th century, it gave rise to the Rus’ people that went from Novgorod to present day Kiev, a period known as Kievan Rus’ or the Russians in Kiev. These East Slavic people are the originators of Ukraine but also Russia and Belarus. Christianity was introduced by Vladimir the Great ( not to be mixed with the present mini-dictator ) and reached its peak under Yaroslav ( circa 1050 ) before falling under the Mongol invasion around 1240. This is when many fled to the Northern forests and founded Russia. Lithuania and later with Poland under the Lublin union took over. From 1500 onward however, the Cossacks tried to free the region from Poland and gradually weaned it only to fall under the protection of the Tsar of Russia by 1654. This also brought problems and by 1709, they tried to fight Moscow. Catherine the Great in 1775 tasked Potemkin to shut them down and the Sich ( central Cossack authority ) was disbanded. The courageous warriors however were put to good use by the Tsar and Soviets and they still are a majority in the Kremlin Presidential Regiment. In Ukraine today, the population is split between their descendants, the Kuban Cossacks ( those that speak Russian ) and those that instead remember the independence of the Cossack warriors as their historical legacy and slowly developed the idea of an free and independent Ukraine ( and speak Ukrainian ). From 1917, the Russian revolution drowned Ukraine and many other people in the communist adventure. 1989 First name : the USSR falls.
Since the end of the USSR, a few things happened that make up our second timeframe and explain the situation we are witnessing. One, dismantling the ex Eastern block had very varied consequences. Some lands, the Baltic states of Lithunia, Latvia and Estonia for instance rapidly found their new identity and turned to the West. So did most of the European nations. From Belarus & Ukraine to the Pacific however, most ex Soviet republics ( Kazakh-, Kirghyz- and Tajiki-stans ) remained closely linked to the russian master. Georgia, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan joined and later left the CSTO where the former still “reside”. To keep things simple, the CSTO is the Russian equivalent to NATO. Except that where the USA lead and try to influence NATO members, Moscow literally decides what CSTO members do or don’t. There is a reason for this however. All big countries historically require a strong leadership. Sure the very young big countries that are Canada and America manage in part due to democratic ideals but apart from India ( Which gained a 29th state today, double congratulations! ), Form Mexico to China, the central power is always busy resisting or thwarting regional powers within. Iran lasted but Iraq and Libya show what happens when a “firm” leader is ousted. Egypt is regularly “saved” as recently by its military since the time of the Pharaohs and Saudi Arabia exists solely from the smaller parts it engulfed by way of the Saud dynasty. Russia then is not only “a” big country but the biggest nation on Earth. Half for that reason and half through the legacy of the Soviet Union, Thus Moscow does not consider its future assured by anything less than hegemony over its neighbors, the only exception being neutral Finland in Scandinavia. Furthermore, the demise of the USSR brought about major changes. Switching to a market based economy allowed some driven individuals to make fortunes ( B$ ) overnight. At the same time, Russia was helmed by softies for a while. ( * See joke below ) A discreet but civil servant with immense ambitions understood the dangers and the opportunities. Armed with that knowledge and insights from working at the KGB ( main state security agency ), Vladimir Putin reached the highest position of power with the clear intent of restoring Russia’s greatness, which in and of itself can be understood. The implications however include securing a strangle hold not only on Russian pseudo-democracy but also on the CSTO ( our second name ). Which includes Ukraine beyond what history would warrant anyway. Vladimir the minor can’t very well allow that although his real might ( weakened military from a quarter of a century ago ) does not give him every options either in this new “multi-polar” world. Or else his beloved Slavic empire will be reduced from great world power to world power or if you prefer, losing Ukraine would be the “official” transition from superpower to standard power and open the way for the USA-China dichotomy to follow suit. Having lost second ranking to France and England on the seas would be confirmed in status? ( On the plus side, it would confirm the validity of the UN SC’s composition. ) In any case, history in the making!
2004, November 21, Kiev : proper polls give Viktor Yushchenko is given from 9 to 5 percentage points ahead of Viktor … Yanukovich. But the next day, Yanukovich wins with nearly 50%? Yet the next day ( 23rd ), 100 thousand Yushchenko supporters mass themselves on Kiev’s central plaza ( named Maidan or Independence ). At the beginning of December, the parliament disavow Yanukovich, the voting laws are reformed and on January 10th, Yushchenko is given as the winner by 5 points. He selects Yulia Timoshenko as his prime minister. The whole process is remembered under the vocable of Orange Revolution. Being the naive people that they are, the Ukrainian people thought that democracy and freedom had entered their lives at long last.
In late 2009, as elections loomed, Yanukovich faced Timoshenko, ever the gentleman, showered her with sexist remarks ( “belongs in the kitchen” ) and nonetheless won ( Jan. 2010 ). Tymoshenko tried pulling a rigged election stunt and ended up in prison for the very kind of behaviour that her opponent carried on since. A year later in May 2011, Yanukovich said that “Our main priority is integration into the EU” as Russia was using the gas prices as a tool to control the nation, going as far as asking for EU integration to be an essential part of the talks : http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-25/yanukovych-drives-ukraine-toward-eu-as-russian-gas-deal-looms.html ( Russia/Putin actually wanted a merger between its giant energy corp Gazprom and Ukraine’s NAK ). The poor people again showed their credulity to be extreme by believing him. But on November 21 2013, the Ukrainian government denounced the plan. A week later, Yanukovich attended an EU summit in Vilnius and delayed signing the agreement. At this time ( and most likely now as well ), the divide was 50-50 between the pros and cons in the country. Polls show a majority in favor of the EU agreement since though.
Subsequently, citizens flocked back to Maidan Plaza for protests and the moniker Euro(agreement)Maidan(Independence) was born! It is our third Word? EuroMaidan demonstrators began as normal folks. Slowly through the protests though, this changed. The police used force, maybe excessive. The protesters hardened. The Berkut ( top interior forces ) were called in. Protesters hardened. Yakunocih promised seats for the opposition ( empty bid since the President overrules ). Then he turned to Putin and announced that Russia would back the Ukrainian economy ( hurt by the crisis ) by providing up to 15B$ of grants. The protesters redoubled their demonstrations. The EU condemned the escalation softly. Putin accused the West of influencing the locals. The protests went on. The Sochi Olympic games took first stage and almost all forgot about Ukraine. Using the distraction/respite, Yakunovich sent the Berkut on the offensive. The protesters fought back. Etc.
As much as I, like most in the “democratic” Western nations, fault the pres and govt for that, let me add that the Berkut showed humanity, yes humanity! For a police force supposedly renowned for harshness, they withstood attacks and deaths in their ranks as well as most”civilized” nations police forces would have. On Monday last ( February 17 2014 ), the security forces were asked to clear out the plaza ( probably under cover of the Sochi Games or so is my belief). The protesters held fast and the situation has escalated since. Yesterday, a medical volunteer by the name of Olesya Zhukovskaya tweeted : _”I am dying” and she did!
Since, 60 odd policemen were made captive by the rebels and the whole nation enflamed. Both sides began unabashed use of firearms. In fact, the government allowed snipers to engage protesters, i.e. specialized soldiers tasked with killing opponents to “terminate” citizens? French, German and Polish foreign Ministers visited Kiev today and were held back by the violence which is located less than a kilometer away from the Presidential palace, the government or parliament and after fruitless talks with Yakunovich went on to attempt to meet the opposition.
The next hours will be important but in order to close our third timeframe, we have to move to Next Monday! The Olympics will end Sunday in Sochi. As the sunrises in Moscow and Kiev on February 24th, the RealPolitik imperatives will be back in full forces. Vladimir Putin will have his public image bid of hosting the games in his back pocket and turn to more pressing matters. The minor hold of securing the glory of opinion on his saving face PR act will vanish and the aforementioned pressure of insuring that past Soviet glory does not burn fleetingly as the bugs’ wings near the bonfire. Anything up to sending troops into Ukraine will be on the menu. Losing Kiev is not an option. Not only would that constitute the proverbial exposing of your flank but in the long term, it would make Russia dependent on the good will of Beijing. Have you noticed how little came out of China concerning Ukraine? Xi Jinping is no idiot. Friends ( circumstantial at best anyhow ) or no friends, anything that weakens Russia favors China if only in the long range? Let’s be honest here, blunt even : Next Monday, things will move into a new sphere!
If you want to follow history, here is EuroMaidan’s English language Tweeter link :
https://twitter.com/EuroMaidanEN
Worried peace out, Tay.
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