The Geneva deal on nuclear Iran simplified.

 

A lot of noise is now following the deal that was reached in Geneva between the 5+1 group ( the 5 Permanent U.N. Security Council members ( China, France, Russia, USA & UK ) plus Germany and the Islamic Republic of Iran. The most heard comment was of course the rebuttal from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem calling the deal a mistake even though most of the World’s capitals welcomed it? So for our readers to get an idea without going through hundreds of links, here are the important things to remember.

 

The main demands on Iran are that it subside in its efforts to enrich past 5% concentration including not setting up additional centrifuges, the tools that allow refinement of nuclear fuel and also that it opens its ARAK nuclear plant design to the AIEA inspections.

 

The 5 % limit is taken from the fact that to run basic nuclear plants, enrichment at the 3.5/4 % level is enough. The level for weapons grade is all the way up to the 90% threshold? Of course, it is still possible to make bombs below that but only dirty ones with a rather small-scale efficiency and certainly nothing that could be used in missiles of real strategical value with any level of certainty of functioning.

 

The centrifuges could similarly be used in sequence to procure higher enrichment Uranium 235. But it is important to remember that other methods exist to do so ( gaseous or thermal diffusion and laser separation ). The reason why they are not mentioned is that Western Intelligence do not show them to be available to Teheran at present.

 

In exchange for which the main offers to Iran are a promise that sanctions will not be heightened in the next 6 months and various measures returning between 1.5 and 4+ Billion $ in gains from sales until now forbidden. Since Iran’s GNP ( sum of money earned annually ) is estimated at a bit over a thousand billion dollars, that corresponds to a relief of .1 to .5 % of its economy? Not so much!

The less striking but more important concessions for the weel-being of Iran’s population are the acceptance of safety work to be allowed for the country’s airlines which are paramount to the safety and security of those that travel by plane ( and thus simplify the daily life and internal functioning of the nation ) and the possibility to back some of the students studying abroad by authorizing payments on their tuition fees. Schooling doctors for instance does not jeopardize the safety of the international community.

Most of all, it should be remembered taht the deal is temporary, 6 months and only provisional to subsequent negotiations succeeding as well?

Knowing which, the call from Israel on the deal being bad and dangerous seem far-fetched. I do understand the worries of Netanyahu and more so his intent to keep the image of a dangerous rival in Iran alive in the minds of the public. Still, it is mostly propaganda to do so. Israel is widely believed even by the best experts to possess a minimal amount of nuclear warheads at present. As such, it could preemptively strike Iran and disable its equivalent production if need be. The problem is thus not one of military means but of international opinion for if that happened, many all over the globe would immediately and definitively condemn the Jewish State. It is that tool that the present deal could make disappear? For if the deal produces enough results, i.e. confidence between the parties, it should bring about further negotiations and ultimately a more permanent agreement.

If that came to be, the nuclear weapons would likely still not be within reach of Teheran but a new place for Iran in the affairs of the Middle-East would! What Israel is worried about is the normalization of relations with the Ayatollahs and Revolutionary guards and the ensuing clout they may have over local affairs. And in truth, they may be right. A moderate Iranian approach to the post-US presence in Afghanistan would benefit that country and region. In exchange though, it would more than likely be accompanied by a heightened role for it in Iraq and Syria which most would not welcome. It would also diminish somewhat the importance of the Gulf states ( Saudi Arabia / Qatar et al ) that are vying for results in the region and especially the post-Hafez regime in Damascus.

 

There is one way to preventively lessen the burden on Israel that does not pass by vilifying the Geneva deal though. By concluding peace accords with Palestine and durably simplifying / stabilizing both its internal situation, its relations with the surrounding Monarchies who’d welcome that thorn to be extirpated before it gets any more septic and raising its approval rating in the international opinion, Jerusalem would counterbalance the new weight that Iran could gain.

And the availability of the new resources that stem from shale gas and oil in America and will in turn as it goes back towards energetic independence distance its strategic interests from the Middle-East make that even more pressing! But will the message overcome the die-hard habits?

 

Funny ( not really ) isn’t it that the fossil fuel energy in the Laurentian decklands might have more importance than the new physics high-tech solution of tomorrow in dictating the politics of the 2  original people of the cradle of civilization that are Persia and the Semites?

Such are the quirks of Geo-politics!

 

Peace out, Tay.

Sources :
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/11/iranian-nuclear-deal-sparks-war-words-20131124142141183840.html
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2013/11/us-iran-seven-questions-beyond-nuclear-deal-20131124791721502.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-25075776
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-25077839
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2013-11/24/c_132913884.htm
http://www.euronews.com/2013/11/24/breakthrough-nuclear-agreement-reached-between-iran-and-six-world-powers/
http://www.euronews.com/2013/11/24/obama-welcomes-iran-agreement-promises-vigilance/

On Israel / Netanyahu’s answer :

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/iran-nuclear-deal-israel-calls-it-historic-mistake-while-others-welcome-agreement-1.1557874
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/carlo-strenger/netanyahu-iran-deal_b_4332741.html